The Future of Corn Cash Price Forecasting
AAEA member releases new research in AJAE
According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, in 2019, 89.7 million acres of corn were planted in the United States, but only 81.5 were harvested. It is important for producers to know the price forecast for corn, in order to plan for the next year. New research released in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics looks into a more accurate and feasible corn cash price forecasting model for various market participants.
Xiaojie Xu from North Carolina State University found that the optimal combined model leads to a forecasting error that is only 10% or less of that of non-combined models.
Xu says “The research covers seven of eight largest corn harvest states in the U.S., which contribute to nearly 70% of the national harvest acres. A wide variety of time series models and combined models are surveyed for corn cash prices in these states. Daily forecasting is studied, facilitating market participants’ timely decision making.”
ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 60 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes two journals, the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices and the online open access publication series Applied Economics Teaching Resources. To learn more, visit www.aaea.org.
Contact: Allison Scheetz
Senior Communications Manager