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Tariffs, Agricultural Subsidies, and the 2020 US Presidential Election

AAEA members release new research in AJAE

One standard deviation increase in exposure to Net Market Facilitation Program (MFP) is associated with about a 0.38 percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 Presidential election. The implied effect of the Net MFP increases monotonically from the most urban area to the most rural area.

In the new article “Tariffs, Agricultural Subsidies, and the 2020 US Presidential Election” released in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Jaerim Choi from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Sunghun Lim from Louisiana State University investigate how U.S. voters responded to the U.S.-China trade war and the corresponding U.S. agricultural subsidies in the 2020 Presidential election.

Lim says,  “The (mis)allocation of the US agricultural subsidies to the politically connected could impose substantial economic costs on all US taxpayers, who bear the costs of government-provided subsidies. It is equally important to identify the mechanism by which economic shocks, especially trade and agricultural policies, lead to political outcomes, a challenging issue that is poorly understood.”

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ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 60 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes three journals, the Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (an open access journal), the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices and the online open access publication series Applied Economics Teaching Resources. To learn more, visit

Contact: Allison Ware
Senior Communications & Membership Manager
(414) 918-3190