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NAFTA 2.0: The Wins and Losses in the USMCA

Four AAEA members present their research at ASSA

October 1, 2018, the new NAFTA trade agreement, “United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), was signed and is expected to take effect around January 1, 2020. Free trade is certainly a generally supported objective, but there are losers and gainers from the move towards freer trade. In an AAEA session taking place at the Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting entitled “NAFTA Revisited – Moving Forward,” four presentations will look into the effects on tomatoes and sugar, efficiency, exchange rate, and water needs.

Organizer of the session, Andrew Schmitz from the University of Florida says, “the Canadian dairy sector lost from the agreement. But overall, it appears that there are net gains to be had from pursuing the new USMCA. However, in this context, the net gains from that agreement are likely far less than retaliatory tariffs placed against U.S. agriculture that have been put in place by countries outside of Mexico, the U.S., and Canada. U.S. agricultural trade with China is important and should be considered where the impact of retaliatory tariffs from China is large relative to the net gains from freer trade under the USMCA. ”

Presentations in this session:

  • USMCA, Canadian Supply Management, and U.S.-Mexico Suspension Agreements
    Troy G. Schmitz, Arizona State University, and James L. Seale, Jr., University of Florida
  • Role of Enabling Trade Indexes & Agreements on Production and Trade Efficiency: Alternative Panel Stochastic Frontier Analysis
    Saleem Shaik, North Dakota State University
  • Strategic Agricultural Trade Policy Interdependence and NAFTA: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?
    P. Lynn Kennedy, Louisiana State University
  • NAFTA: Trade and Water Needs in the South Texas-Mexico Border
    Luis Ribera, Texas A&M University

This session will be taking place on Friday, January 4, 2019 at 10:15 am – 12:15 pm at the Hilton Atlanta. To attend this session please contact Allison Scheetz in the AAEA Business Office for your complimentary Media Registration.

ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 60 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes two journals, the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices. To learn more, visit

Contact: Allison Scheetz
Senior Communications Manager
(414) 918-3190