China Section Track Sessions

In this session, we focus on demand and international trade issues in China. As a major market, structural changes in Chinese preferences are particularly important to exporting countries. As a major exporter, China is also affected by changing factors in destination markets such as the United States. The following topics are considered for this session: (1) Given the overall scale of the Chinese economy, changes in cotton textile consumption could have a profound impact on world textile and cotton markets. We examine cotton textile demand through a household survey conducted by Cotton Council International to estimate elasticities of demand for textile products. Using forecasted changes in demographics and income, we project cotton textile demand and global cotton prices. (2) The market for imported wine has been developing rapidly in China due to an expanding middle class, rising incomes, a growing interest in western lifestyle and tastes, and better wine education. We assess the importance of country of origin in determining wine preferences and further assess how preferences have structurally changed over time. (3) Income growth in urban areas has significantly increased expenditures on foods consumed away from home in China. We estimate expenditure elasticities for total quantities of 9 commodity groups using a complete demand system, while accounting for censored data and the effects of food away from home expenditures on these same commodities. (4) About 25% of U.S. aquaculture imports originated from China. Highly publicized incidents of food contamination and adulteration pose new challenges for consumers and food safety regulators. We focus on U.S. imports of Chinese shrimp and tilapia to evaluate consumer willingness-to-pay for enhanced food safety, use of antibiotics, and eco-friendly environmental practices used in production

This session focuses on the changing landscape for agricultural input markets in China. The Chinese food and agricultural sector is changing rapidly on both the supply and demand sides as China grows economically, with major consequences not only for China but also for global agricultural markets. This session will shed light on some of the important supply-side changes. The topics to be discussed in this session (with presenters listed in parentheses) include: (1) the extent of credit rationing among rural credit cooperatives in China and lending policy reforms that could reduce credit rationing while maintaining or increasing profitability among these cooperatives (Ying Cao); (2) the consequences of global crude oil prices for China’s vegetable oil prices, with impacts arising through costs of planting, harvesting, and transporting oilseeds, as well as through production of oilseed-based biofuels (Wei Chen); (3) the impacts of government-subsidized insurance for pig producers on hog and sow production in China, bearing in mind potential moral hazard problems with the insurance scheme (Yuehua Zhang); and (4) the effects of land use diversity on pest infestation and yields for rice and cotton, in the face of major land use changes brought about by China's rapid economic growth (Wei Zhang). The four presenters in this session will bring to bear a range of data and econometric techniques on the supply side of Chinese agriculture, including micro-level data on individual farm lending decisions (Ying Cao) and individual producer participation in livestock insurance (Yuehua Zhang), county-level data on land use and crop production (Wei Zhang), and market-level data on agricultural prices (Wei Chen).

This session focuses on the role of China and other developing countries in high global food prices and global food price volatility, and the impacts of high prices and price volatility on China and other developing countries. Global food prices have been highly volatile during the past five years, with prices during 2007-2008 and in 2011 significantly above long-term averages. China, as a major player in global agricultural markets and home to approximately one-fifth of the world's population, is one of the most important countries to consider when examining the current global food price environment. The topics to be discussed in this session (with presenters listed in parentheses) include: (1) the impacts of Chinese domestic and international agricultural trade policies on global food prices and price volatility, and the role that Chinese agricultural policies could play in reducing price volatility (Shenggen Fan); (2) the consequences of high food prices in China for smallholder agricultural production, poverty alleviation, and China's international agricultural trade (Scott Rozelle); (3) the effects of high food prices on poverty in developing countries, the resulting incentives for policy makers to adopt policies to insulate their markets against changes in international prices, and the effectiveness of these policies in stabilizing domestic prices (Will Martin); and (4) as China continues its economic development, the prospect that its agricultural policies could become similar to those of other middle- and high-income Asian countries, where agriculture is heavily protected and inefficient, resulting in less food self-sufficiency and large agricultural imports (Keijiro Otsuka). The four presenters in this session are well-known for their expertise on global food prices, food price volatility, and China, and they will bring a range of economic modeling tools to bear in their presentations.